A crypto analyst is comparing Bitcoin’s price action to a traditional stock to predict what’s next for BTC after the past two months.
In a new strategy session, the anonymous host of InvestAnswers highlights automaker Tesla while telling his 442,000 YouTube subscribers the importance of mean reversion, a metric that says an asset’s price will eventually return to its long-term average.
“Let’s look at the couple. This is the Tesla divided by Bitcoin pair and you can see that the price is now around 0.036. We’re back to where we were at the end of 2020. It’s like a giant U.
Is mean reversion overdue? If you look at this chart, you can see the blue line, that’s the 200-day moving average. That’s around 0.024 and we’re currently trading at 0.036. While Tesla has been flat over the past 12 months, Bitcoin is down 70%.
That’s where we are, that’s the situation, and that’s why there’s this parallax.”
The analyst says that most assets with real underlying utility and value will return to their mean, which is why he expects both Tesla and Bitcoin to start rallies from about half a year.
“Short and sweet, no financial advice of course, everything common returns unless it’s a piece of crap or it’s broken.
Tesla has held up incredibly well through the correction and recession. While I believe Tesla will hit $1,200 in the next six to 12 months, which is a little less than double, I also believe Bitcoin could potentially triple over the same period. Six to 12 months, going through the summer of 2023, and that’s very, very conservative.
The Tesla/Bitcoin pair is currently trading at 0.036. [The] The 200 day moving average is 0.024 so technically we are here. I do not expect the pair to scale above that 0.036 level.”
Regarding Tesla’s future earnings, the chart guru mentions that the company will suffer a significant loss on paper for its current bitcoin holdings.
“You will be hit hard. You’re going to have an impairment of maybe $450 million. A lot of things hit them, but they had their worst quarterly performance in over two years.
I think this pair will fall and I think once the bids come back it is more likely that bitcoin will be bought at this level and Tesla could fall so watch the 0.036 level.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is up 6.02% on the day and is priced at $20,258.
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