Bitcoin will see a “long bear market,” says a trader with BTC price stuck at $19,000

Bitcoin (BTC) failed to recoup recent losses as of July 2 as traders braced for a continuation of flat price action.

BTC/USD 1 Hour Candlestick Chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

“Downtrend Acceleration” still in effect

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked a weak BTC/USD pair as it tumbled around $19,000 into the weekend.

Wall Street’s trading week had ended without surprises, with US stocks virtually flat – giving little boost to crypto volatility. The US Dollar Index, or DXY, ran out of steam after a retest of 20-year highs, circling 105 points.

US Dollar Index (DXY) 1 hour candlestick chart. Source: TradingView

Order book data from the largest global exchange, Binance, showed that BTC/USD was caught between buy and sell liquidity near the spot price, ensuring a lack of volatility until traders maneuvered or significantly contributed to bids or asks.

BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material Indicators

Zooming out, the outlook for bulls didn’t seem much more optimistic.

For popular trading account altcoin Sherpa, current conditions promised an extended period of uninspiring Bitcoin performance that could last through much of 2022.

“It will take months to chop around and accumulate once ground is found,” it says said Twitter followers.

“And the bottom might not come for a few months from now. Hunker down for a long bear market IMO.”

Sentiment was echoed by trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who argued that Bitcoin has yet to make new macro lows or start consolidating.

“Excuse yourself. Get your bitcoin in cold storage. Sit tight,” Checkmate, senior on-chain analyst at research firm Glassnode added.

Will 2018’s all-time volume highs echo?

The next week or two, meanwhile, could prove to be the bottoms of this cycle, giving those concerned a degree of hope that the bottom is months away.

Related: Price Analysis 7/1: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, LEO, SHIB

in one Twitter thread On that day, economist, trader, and entrepreneur Alex Krueger noted that BTC-denominated volume hit an all-time high over the past month.

“Typically, trading volume is at its highest when markets are capitulating,” he explained.

In the 2018 bear market, he added, the all-time high in volume actually came several weeks before the price bottom, and should this time follow the trend, July could be the site of the next.

Previously, Rekt Capital had argued that buy-side volume had not been strong enough to sustain a fresh price surge over the long-term, while highlighting 2018’s volume moves.

The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should do your own research when making a decision.