Bitcoin (BTC) failed to recoup recent losses as of July 2 as traders braced for a continuation of flat price action.
“Downtrend Acceleration” still in effect
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked a weak BTC/USD pair as it tumbled around $19,000 into the weekend.
Wall Street’s trading week had ended without surprises, with US stocks virtually flat – giving little boost to crypto volatility. The US Dollar Index, or DXY, ran out of steam after a retest of 20-year highs, circling 105 points.
Order book data from the largest global exchange, Binance, showed that BTC/USD was caught between buy and sell liquidity near the spot price, ensuring a lack of volatility until traders maneuvered or significantly contributed to bids or asks.
Zooming out, the outlook for bulls didn’t seem much more optimistic.
For popular trading account altcoin Sherpa, current conditions promised an extended period of uninspiring Bitcoin performance that could last through much of 2022.
“It will take months to chop around and accumulate once ground is found,” it says said Twitter followers.
“And the bottom might not come for a few months from now. Hunker down for a long bear market IMO.”
Sentiment was echoed by trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who argued that Bitcoin has yet to make new macro lows or start consolidating.
#BTC possibly still in the downtrend acceleration phase of its correction
But this phase precedes the “several-month consolidation” phase
What will precede the New Macro Uptrend phase$BTC #crypto #Bitcoin
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) July 1, 2022
“Excuse yourself. Get your bitcoin in cold storage. Sit tight,” Checkmate, senior on-chain analyst at research firm Glassnode added.
Will 2018’s all-time volume highs echo?
The next week or two, meanwhile, could prove to be the bottoms of this cycle, giving those concerned a degree of hope that the bottom is months away.
Related: Price Analysis 7/1: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, LEO, SHIB
in one Twitter thread On that day, economist, trader, and entrepreneur Alex Krueger noted that BTC-denominated volume hit an all-time high over the past month.
“Typically, trading volume is at its highest when markets are capitulating,” he explained.
Typically, trading volume is at its highest when markets are capitulating, and such capitulation leads to major lows.
This weekly chart contains aggregate Bitcoin volume for most BTC pairs (spot & perpetuals across exchanges).
Volume hit its all-time high two weeks ago. pic.twitter.com/6ONLibQiL2
— Alex Kruger (@krugermacro) July 2, 2022
In the 2018 bear market, he added, the all-time high in volume actually came several weeks before the price bottom, and should this time follow the trend, July could be the site of the next.
Previously, Rekt Capital had argued that buy-side volume had not been strong enough to sustain a fresh price surge over the long-term, while highlighting 2018’s volume moves.
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